Comments on: Netflix equals absolution http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/ trust me. Thu, 09 Sep 2010 07:23:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1.3 By: Scott http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1233 Scott Wed, 09 Aug 2006 17:33:50 +0000 http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1233 I think there is a flaw in your argument: Netflix somehow decides how many copies of a movie to buy based on expected demand so that they can make enough of their users happy simultaneously. I would imagine that they looked at a couple factors to decide how many copies of X-Men 3 to buy. First would be past rental patterns, probably of prior X-Men films, and also of films that tended to gross about the same amount of money as X-Men. Second would be to look at how many users had X-Men 3 in their queues to be sent out when it became available. If some Netflix users have a pattern of downloading big films rather than renting them, then they won't have them saved in their queues, and they won't end up renting them. That means that group of users will influence the way Netflix calculates how many copies of a film to buy, and therefore they end up buying a few less copies, which means a little less money to the studio. If you're the only one downloading with this rationale, then it probably isn't a major impact on Neflix and studios. If a LOT of Netflix users are downloading with this rationale, then it will be. I think there is a flaw in your argument: Netflix somehow decides how many copies of a movie to buy based on expected demand so that they can make enough of their users happy simultaneously. I would imagine that they looked at a couple factors to decide how many copies of X-Men 3 to buy. First would be past rental patterns, probably of prior X-Men films, and also of films that tended to gross about the same amount of money as X-Men. Second would be to look at how many users had X-Men 3 in their queues to be sent out when it became available.

If some Netflix users have a pattern of downloading big films rather than renting them, then they won’t have them saved in their queues, and they won’t end up renting them. That means that group of users will influence the way Netflix calculates how many copies of a film to buy, and therefore they end up buying a few less copies, which means a little less money to the studio.

If you’re the only one downloading with this rationale, then it probably isn’t a major impact on Neflix and studios. If a LOT of Netflix users are downloading with this rationale, then it will be.

]]> By: Tommy http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1234 Tommy Wed, 09 Aug 2006 17:56:59 +0000 http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1234 Scott, I had thought about what you bring up: that if many people acted the same way as me, then something would be affected. I just chose to ignore it. :) I know that's not the best way to make a good point, but it happened in this case. If I were to adjust my behavior to have the least impact, queuing movies and then rating them would probably be less detrimental to Netflix deciding which movies to purchase. Not that I feel I need to defend myself, but I do get plenty of DVDs in the mail from Netflix and watch more of them than downloaded ones. Oftentimes it's easier to put a DVD in my queue and forget about it than to hunt through all the BitTorrent forums and then wait and wait for something to download. When the business models change so they offer a mixture of home delivery and downloads of movies I'll be quite a happy customer. Scott,
I had thought about what you bring up: that if many people acted the same way as me, then something would be affected. I just chose to ignore it. :)

I know that’s not the best way to make a good point, but it happened in this case.

If I were to adjust my behavior to have the least impact, queuing movies and then rating them would probably be less detrimental to Netflix deciding which movies to purchase.

Not that I feel I need to defend myself, but I do get plenty of DVDs in the mail from Netflix and watch more of them than downloaded ones. Oftentimes it’s easier to put a DVD in my queue and forget about it than to hunt through all the BitTorrent forums and then wait and wait for something to download.

When the business models change so they offer a mixture of home delivery and downloads of movies I’ll be quite a happy customer.

]]> By: Scott http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1235 Scott Wed, 09 Aug 2006 18:22:37 +0000 http://tommykeswick.com/blog/2006/08/08/netflix-equals-absolution/#comment-1235 I agree that the companies aren't keeping up with the way that people would like to get access to their media. I am hoping that we'll be there soon; iTMS is already doing TV shows, so it seems like it would be a natural next step to do films. Of course, the sales model might not be palatable (pay-per-view vs. rental style subscription, etc.) There are of course some technical/political challenges here, it's always nicer to have un-DRMed content than deal with DRM. I agree that the companies aren’t keeping up with the way that people would like to get access to their media. I am hoping that we’ll be there soon; iTMS is already doing TV shows, so it seems like it would be a natural next step to do films. Of course, the sales model might not be palatable (pay-per-view vs. rental style subscription, etc.)

There are of course some technical/political challenges here, it’s always nicer to have un-DRMed content than deal with DRM.

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